Update on my Holdings

Everything Sold.

With Rotary I made a silly mistake by assuming that they will come out Q3 results, without this assumption, I would have sold at 0.600.

Robinson, Sold at 6.900

Drawing up a list of targets to short soon.

very pissed i sold off rotary too fast. will take a break from blogging for awhile

SingHldgs

Adding this to my watchlist, queing up for this as well at 0.380

Monday update

We are having a slight correction today, but bright earnings should rally the market again for the rest of the week.

Somehow the saturday post didnt show up until i reposted it, anyway Im preparing for a market slowdown come mid-Nov onwards

Saturday

It is my belief that a Stock market correction will start anytime from Mid-Nov onwards. How long and how bad I wont bother to speculate. A US slowdown is already happening, nevermind the pretty words used during election times.

About the previous structured deposit post. pls read between the lines

Structured Deposits, Blame the Bank or the Customers?

In response to this http://info.channelnewsasia.com/bb/viewtopic.php?t=40652 And many other complains about structured deposits.

It seems many people are angry about the bank's staffs targeting old people, housewives, and such. here are afew choice comments,

"it's really xia liu of them to target old people's money. these low lifes!"

"You are not alone,my mum was ask to renew her fixed deposit when usually they are auto renew,she was call down by the PFC with the PFC intention of selling her investment product"

"What i cannot stand about those greedy bloody sucking personal bankers who are only interested in their commissions is that they do not highlight the potential risks of such products to old people who are risk averse and have only went to the bank to place a fixed deposit. Naturally, they only say this product will be much better than a fixed deposit etc etc and that it is capital guaranteed and not highlight the risks involved. Worse thing is my mum is Chinese educated and she signed a contract totally in English with an incredible amount of fine print. "

"i feel sorry for your mom, claire. My mom n dad got ripped off in a very big way by U**. They started with FDs but on maturity, was misled to switch one by one to SDs. When we the children discovered the error and protested, it became a you-are-making-accusations-against-our-staff legal dispute case and subject to their management's review. When it was over (we closed all accounts), we suffered a significant shortfall. "

It seems that all 3 local banks have been implicated in this on-going backlash, simmering just below the surface of society.

while I understand their anger, I find it hard to blame the banks for selling their products. After all, if you dont understand english, if your unsure, or for any other reason, you simply can walk away/ refuse to sign !.

It is your act of willingly signing away your money for better returns that condemn's you.

You have signed your money away....then you blame others, come out all the reasons like dont understand, false promise, hard selling..etc etc

dont understand then refuse to sign la, false promise then sue them loh, but most likely is you didnt go through the fine print yourself !

If this people seem bad for signing away their own money...the banks involved are just as bad.

What has happen to them ? This can be 1 of their worst business decisions ever ! Witness the flight of funds from local banks to foreign banks.

An important advantage our local banks have is cheaper funds, Foreign banks coming into singapore have to offer better FD rates, promotions and such, fighting with our local banks to build up their own customer deposits.

And it seems our local banks are helping them achieve this aim. After screwing up many many customers, what can they expect to happen ?

The worst point however...is the fact that many of their structred deposits lose money or give meagre returns. How Pathetic, it certainly reflects badly on those banks that produce such structured deposits.

This post is only a comment on current events and should not be used as an indication of how future/current structured deposits will fare

Tat hong

Tat hong, Snap shot of Q1.

High demand for crane rentals in Asia
High sales of cranes to the Middle East
Lesser new major projects in Australia have affected general equipment rentals

Crane Rental up 36% and Equipment Sales up 13%
General Equipment Rental down 17%
Net profit up almost 40% to $10.4mil

Cash holdings of $53 mil (June 30)
On the look out for more acquisitions

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Tat hong's 3 main parts

Equipment sales
Crane rental
General rental

The middle east will continue to drive strong sales.

The crane segment will benefit from the IRs in singapore and also from continued high world-wide demand for cranes. I believe this segment will experience strong growth.

Im unclear about their Australian general rental ops.

Conclusion, Tat hong should be posting another record Q2 for crane rentals and equipment sales. Although the general equipment segment remains cloudy.

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Company opinion.

Tat hong - Clear rise in business prospects and strong demand for its crane rental/equipment sales business. Cautious foothold in the china market with its JV with KS energy for oil and gas Projects and JV with Fushun Yongmao Construction Machinery for Tower Crane rentals.

Australia - Robust Oil and Gas Projects, Energy related projects, Infrastructure projects.

Vietnam - Oil and Gas Projects.

Indonesia - Mining equipment to coal mines.

Malaysia - Infrastructure projects, Oil and Gas projects, Shipping industry .

Singapore - Infrastructure projects, IRs, Construction sector is picking up.

China - Oil and Gas Projects, Tower crane rental.

Middle East - Equipment sales to their construction industry, driven by Huge Infrastructure projects.


Looking forward :

World wide increase in government spending on Infrastructure projects.
Strong Demand from Oil and Gas projects.
Demand from Energy related projects.
Demand from the Huge Middle east infrastructure construction boom.

Is a minority partner in 2 Jvs with KS energy to rent out rigs to china oil companies. I believe there will be more such deals to come.



All readers are cautioned to read with care and verify for themselves all the information and material found above. this is not an invitation to buy or sell, investment involves risk, past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance, am i missing anything else to cover my ass ?

more good news for construction / oil infrastructure firms

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/236649/1/.html

saturday chit chat

rejected another spam comment by some lame ass

went for acupunture to treat some 'wind' problem, turns out its caused by indigestion. Felt much better after the acupunture and also somewhat hungry.

total cost for acupunture + 1 week herbal medicine is $20

my take on semi conducters

All junk.

just my personal opinion. Im taking a long term view as an investor and comparing them with other companies in the sgx.

of course punters which only care whether they can make some money soon, will definately have different views

Construction sector revival within 1 year likely

This is bound to happen, Lets put it this way. The 2 IRs alone will revive our die hard construction industry. Add into the demand side, booming property market, on-going construction such as the BFC and both Planned and on-going Oil infrastructure....

on the supply side, our much trimmed down construction sector is starting to grow again to keep up with demand. I think their margins should also rise as demand remains v.strong

more news
BBR plans to enter property development to take advantage of the anticipated property boom. Joining Chip Eng Seng as a construction/property developer company.

This means 1 more construction player will be busy building their own property projects.

Sentosa IR - Part 2

The post below is just the authors opinion !

1st part
Genting - Strongest

Capitaland - weak

8th wonder - weak

Despite my biased preference for Capitaland to win the Sentosa IR, I cant help but wonder at the things their trying to achieve in their proposal. Robotic flowers mixed with real flowers in a giant flower garden, Fake coral reefs for tourist to dive as if singapore isnt surrounded by diving spots, A very big oceanarium with lots of sharks, jelly fish, real fish, robotic fish, and almost the same as other top-end underwater world just that we have fake fish and a bigger fish tank.

Are we attracting country bumpkins here ? Farmers who for the 1st time aboard see such a big fish tank ? Based on the proposal I know of. There is no reason why Capitaland-Kerzner should win the IR. Still I want them to win, because Capitaland is the only GLC in the bidding

"the highlight is a distinctive glass encased 90m tall main building. Changing images will be projected into the glass facade using fibre optics and the visuals and parts of the building itself will constantly move"

A dancing building ? What ? will there be techno played as well ? Im sure the bumpkins will love it. why not just screen free movies so they can feel they got their money worth.

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2nd part


The World's biggest fish tank in Sentosa. Is this the IR that is suppose to power our economy ? A giant fish tank ? With a flashy building ? And a flower park with robotic flowers ? And HOW will this pull in millions of tourists ?

On the other hand and Sad to say. Genting scores big time with their Universal Theme park. It is so amazingly logical to put a universal studio theme park in singapore because there are none in China,Hong Kong,India,Indonesia,Australia,New Zealand, Malaysia, Thailand,Vietnam, Philiphines...etc

And Tourist Families from all this countries will find it cheaper to come to Singapore for a Holiday with their kids instead of Japan or America.

Pls note that many of the above countries have their own underwater world, oceanarium and even sentosa itself already has an underwater world, the common avaliablity of this "attractions" will only, in my opinion, pull down sentosa over the long term battle for tourist dollars.

Conclusion, Genting > Capitaland+Kernzer > 8th wonder

which brings me to 8th wonder. Their strategy seems to be, take abit here, abit there, mix it all around....throw in starwoods, throw in banyan tree, throw in 2 casino companies...and how exactly can this mixture defeat universal studios or even kernzer's "worlds biggest oceanarium" ???

Sunday thoughts

Due to a spammer the comments have been moderated.

Anyway, I find the sunday times rather bullish on residential property. I think that anyone reading it would come away feeling that property prices are increasing, will increase furthur or bound to increase soon.

Are we at the edge of a real property boom or will it be short lived? How will the US slowdown affect our market ? Will the mass market be able to move ? hmm.....

Saturday's newspapers show 1 thing

Loads of property launches, including a handful of overseas developers from canada, australia, malaysia advertising (competing) in singapore for part of the property pie

Looking at the number of Singapore launches alone, I wonder if expectations will meet reality. can foreign funds inject life into the whole spectrum of our market ?

Friday filler

Nothing much to post today. Robinson eats up resistance at 6.800 and 6.850. This share i know is worth at least $7.100 with Dividend

Anyway the long term investor might want to take note of this interesting fact. Robinson regularly gives out around $500 each year as dividend. which is a 7.2% yield at today's closing price.

Recommended for long term investors who want to hold a defensive share. check out its past dividends for more info.

Commentary on my holdings

Bought Rotary at 0.570
Sold Genting at 0.380 on wednesday


--my current holdings--

Robinson at 6.350
Rotary at 0.570

Wednesday review

Fragrance and CSC are on the rise, Im eager to get in.

Fragrance has risen fast because of Low Volume, this kind of rise can easily retreat back..so it seems prudent to wait for now

CSC...high volume and steady uptrend. more sustainable rise. Just worried that im too late on this gem.

LC Dev now at 0.160...as mentioned before. Hold on for maximum benefit but keep an eye out on Thailand...LC is heavily vested there

Robinson, stuck at 6.8 ? if i cant sell Above $7.200 then i might not sell at all. theres still dividends to collect every year. Robinson have always managed rise above $6, its only a matter of time

SSH reaches 0.275 again. I believe it will be on an upward trend for the rest of this year.
KS Energy has gone past my september mark and will continue its upward trend as well

This brings my entire september targets to maturity. I believe they will all continue their upward trend for the rest of this year, just that if you buy now the gains will be smaller.

Now take note of my October targets

1 - 4 months
K1 Ventures
Rotary

4-8 months
CSC
Tat hong

8-12 months
Pacific Healthcare
Noble Group

It seems that K1 and CSC are already going ahead. As pointed out, expect Pacific and Noble to take a long time to reach maturity. maybe I should have mention them in the November targets ? but anyway, im sure afew long term investors will appreciate the early flag

Is it time for Construction ?

Set to benefit from the property boom is our long suffering local construction sector, They should also receive a nice boost from the IRs and IR related changes like More Hotels, Marina bay gardens, Orchard road rejuvenation...etc etc

With things continuing as it is....The better construction companies will soon report better earnings and Start recovering from their slum

Best bets will be those companies that make use of this boom and successfully venture overseas

Those that are not successful overseas or stay as a local player.................................

Monday filler

Nothing much to blog about today, whole day just watched Genting rising and Robinson defending.

Fragrance - 3 points to ponder

1
Company has been aggressively buying up land this year. Note that all purchases are funded internally and bank borrowings

The Management of Fragrance Group Limited (“Company”) is pleased to announce that the
Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Fragrance Land Pte Ltd (“Fragrance Land”) has
acquired a plot of freehold land located at Lot 2890V MK26 Lorong K Telok Kurau
(“Land”) at a purchase consideration of S$5,082,000. The land is zoned “Residential” with a maximum permissible plot ratio of 1.4 and contains a total land area of 1,114.8 square metres.

Subject to the Company obtaining all the necessary approvals from the relevant authorities,it intends to develop the land into a five storey residential apartment building comprising of about 18 units. The costs of the above acquistion and development will be financed by internal funds and bank borrowings.

has acquired two properties located on Lots 138V and 139P TS29 at Balestier Road Singapore (“the property”), at a total purchase consideration of S$2,280,000.
The property sits on a freehold land zoned ‘Commercial and Residential’ and has a land area of 229.3 square metres. The acquisition will be funded by internal funds and bank borrowings. Subject to the necessary conditions being met with and the approvals being obtained from the relevant authorities, the company intends to redevelop the property for commercial uses

has acquired a property located on Lot 98878C TS17 at Penhas Road Singapore (“the
property”), at a purchase consideration of S$3,108,000.
The property sits on a freehold land zoned ‘Residential with Commercial at 1st Storey’ and has a land area of 571.5 square metres. The acquisition will be funded by internal funds and bank borrowings. Subject to the necessary conditions being met with and the approvals being obtained from the relevant authorities, the company intends to redevelop the property for commercial uses.

has exercised options to purchase two plots of freehold land located at Lots 876P and 1393A TS18 Mergui Road (“Land”) at a total purchase consideration of S$14,600,000.00. The land is zoned “Residential” with a maximum permissible plot ratio of 2.8 and contains a total land area of 1,780.3 square metres.

With the possibility of alienating the adjacent state land lot SL1823N TS18, which contains a land area of 220.0 square meters, the combined development land will have a total area of 2,000.3 square meters. Subject to the Company obtaining all the necessary approvals from the relevant authorities, it intends to develop the land into a sixteen storey residential apartment building comprising of about 90 units.

The costs of the above acquistion and development will be financed by internal funds and bank borrowings. The legal completion of the purchase is scheduled to take place in the second quarter of FY2006.
The Company intends to commence the sale of the apartment units in the development in
second quarter of FY2006. Depending on the number of units sold and the level of
progress of the construction, this may contribute to the earnings and net tangible assets of the Company in FY 2006.

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2
Followed by aggressive buying up of share by a substanstial share holder. normally i dont care about insiders buying but this fella has bought until a 72.40% stake !

and he has been doing this since...as far as i can tell march 2005. from 64.29% slowly buying until 72.40%. at this rate, maybe 2007 or so we should see a take over offer

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3
Taken from their 1H06

Turnover for the period up 31.7% to $49,478,000
Net profit for the period up 28.3% to $7,002,000
EPS 4.1 cents
NAV 29cents

Property development sector contributed $41.96 million or 84.8% of the
consolidated turnover

Hotel sector contributed $7.52 million or 15.2% of the total
consolidated turnover.

As at 30 June 2006, the Group’s current assets totaled $95.92 million. Trade debtors, mainly the unbilled revenue portion of the recognised sales of our property units stood at $37.32 million, while cash and bank balances were $4.20 million.

As at 30 June 2006, the Group’s total borrowings amounted to $146.89 million (31 Dec 2005 - $159.74 million) with $6.09 million repayable within one year and $140.80 million repayable beyond one year. The decrease in borrowings was mainly due to the repayment of loans pertaining to the completed and sold development projects.

Theken remarks: Fragrance has lots of loans, this share is more suitable for long term holding of 1 year and above.

link to their announcements http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/new+announcement+last+3+months+by+company+name?OpenView&RestrictToCategory=FFRAGRANCE+GROUP+LIMITED

Sentosa IR

Deadline Oct 10 4pm
Results announcement - No fixed date.

The Sentosa IR has already made many people rich by playing up Capitaland and Keppel Land to their crazy high of $5.200 today.

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CapitaLand
My favourite to win the Sentosa IR, but current $5.200 price is sky high. Their partnership with Kerzner Represents a Joint Singapore-Middle East partnership as Dubai world is a major share holder in Kerzner and Kerzner has a solid track record of building/operating must-see destinations

I believe they will win the Sentosa IR

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Keppel Land
However it is now time for Keppel Land to Plunge. Recent takeover bid for Harrah now throws their whole sentosa bid into a 50-50 maybe yes maybe no. Current share price of $5.200 is totally on Hot air. Capitaland can Justify $5.200 based on their high chance of winning the IR, Keppel land ? their not even the likely winner, and may even drop out from the IR bid.

I have a feeling that those who buy Keppel land High will soon Suffer In Silence Plus Extra Cursing

It is important to balance out the negative IR view with the positive facts that Keppel land will be the biggest winner from higher office values/rentals with their 1 raffles quay and BFC office projects.

Also positive factors are their exposure to High end properties here in singapore and their increasing regional activities.

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Genting Int
Although I believe Capitaland will win, Genting does have a very strong bid with Universal Studios and their recent take over of British casino operator Stanley Leisure gives Genting even more clout. I believe its either Capitaland or Genting.

Genting has increased their effective stake in Stanley Leisure to 41.52%

Wierdly, Genting's share price seems to be stuck in slow crawl while capitaland and even keppel land rushed up. Could this change ? Can the hot money cycle out from keppel land into Genting ? I think Yes.

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8th wonder
Will puke blood and faint if they win

October Targets

1 - 4 months
K1 Ventures
Rotary

4-8 months
CSC
Tat hong

8-12 months
Pacific Healthcare
Noble Group

K1 ventures - I believe once its Dividend Date is fixed, price will go up. You can also consider holding K1 for the long term, as in afew years.

Rotary - Net profit is on a upward direction because of its $535million Universal Terminal contract. I expect share price to follow this upward direction.

CSC - Exciting times ahead, with the acquisition of L&MFS, how big will this company be ? How big can it grow here in singapore and overseas ? Tat hong has the connections in countries with High Infrastructure Demand, CSC + L&MFS has the ability to fufill some of this demands.

Tat Hong - I believe they will continue growing together along with the High building activities in the Middle East, Vietnam and Healthy demand from Singapore, Australia.

Pacific Healthcare - They have been expanding locally and overseas in a Aggressive manner. This purchases are normally JVs in which Pacific holds a stake in, like having a hand in many pots. sold and leaseback its 2 nursing homes and psychiatric hospital propery to raise funds for their acquisitions.

Singapore acquisitions include
51% of SHSCC
50% of PHCC which occupys the entire 19th floor in Paragon, Orchard Road.
100% of Dental clinic Robertson Choo Oehlers Lee & Lye
100% of Centre for Oral surgery and Implants

Overseas acquisitions include
19% of Prestige Healthcare Investments which will pay $6 mil for 70% of Shanghai kanglian hospital
50% Mumbai JV with the Wadia group
Planning 2 new centres in India, 1 in Hyderabad and another in Mumbai


Noble Group - Have been building strategic positions for quite some time now, They Assume that ethanol demand will take off strongly and set off a chain of events, I believe their 'positions'
were built around this predictions.

Recently acquired a 10% stake in a Vanadium Mine and global marketing rights to sell products from the mine

Noble group seems more then just a commodity trader. They own a in-house fleet as well as Facilities to Transport/process/store commodities. Truly an interesting company to watch.

Focusing my blog and Review of September targets

Ive decided to devote the blog mostly to my list of targets including those im targeting but not vested / limited funds

Also I will stop suggesting any buys or sells, pricing or time. Focusing on just the analysis and a conservative timeframe

Ok, Time to review the September list of targets and draw up the October list

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Price at 1 Sept 2006

Swissco -0.290
KS Energy - 2.500
SSH Corp - 0.260
Raffles Education - 2.600
LC Dev - 0.135

Price today

Swissco -0.325
KS Energy - 2.420
SSH Corp - 0.270
Raffles Education - 2.590
LC Dev - 0.145

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I find that the long term fundementals for all of them have remained the same, Except for Raffles Education which is recommended based on their 2 for 1 stock split, 0.018 dividend and 1 for 12 harford shares.

Expect Raffles Education to start climbing up after their AGM has confirmed this actions and a date is set for it.

Time frame 1-4 months.

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Swissco and SSH remain as penny plays with Good growth prospects.

LC Dev is a turn around story although the recent troubles in Thailand and the impact on tourism is a watch point

KS Energy recently announced a 50-50 JV with Sinwa, I expect more such deals to come .